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This Market comprises that of many existing and all future Jet Powered Aircraft as estimated for this Industry through to the end of year 2017. The source of data of what comprises the existing and future World Market is the Boeing Corporation's own Market appraisal which was downloaded from It's Internet Web site
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo
This was compared with the European, Airbus Industries's Market appraisal covering the same picture on
http://www.airbus.com/gmf98_.html#World Fleet
Both appraisals agree in principle on the scale and scope of this potential market. For the purpose of this exercise the Boeing estimation of the market is used.
Note: The part of the Market dealt by both Manufacturers addresses and as addressed here is limited to consideration of the requirement for existing, future commercial and cargo transport jets only. This consideration does not take into account the world market for either existing or future military Aircrafts or business jets which would also be candidates for The System.
Note: In military Jet Powered Aircrafts, incorporation of The System would invariably involve a complete redesign of it's airframe. The modified change to existing Aircrafts would be impractical because their engines are usually buried within the Airframe. Nonetheless, the vastly improved performance of any new military Aircraft that can now be achieved will inevitably demand a strategic rethink of the affect the introduction of this "System" will undoubtedly have upon, the world wide "Balance of Air Power".
Note: Prop Jet types of Aircraft do not lend themselves to adaptation so readily as conventionally configured, Jet Powered Aircraft.
This appraisal is only intended to be a guide yet, convey a very real appreciation of the very considerable potential scope of the business both in the existing and future world market for The System.
4.1 Boeing Executive Overview.
4.1.1 Economic & traffic Growth.
Major projections of the period 1998-2007 are as follows:
- Worldwide economic growth will average 2.9% per year.
Passenger traffic growth will average 5.0% per year.
Cargo traffic growth will average 6% per year.
4.1.2 World-wide The world fleet will be 17,700 passenger and cargo jets demand for in 2007. The composition of the world fleet will be:
Commercial Aircraft 1998-2007
- 71% single-aisle Aircrafts.
- 22% intermediate-size Aircrafts.
- 7% 747-size or larger Aircrafts.
The total market potential for new commercial Aircrafts is 7,600 or an equivalent of $520 billion at 1997 US dollars exchange rate.
Airlines will take delivery of:
- 5,310 single-aisle Aircrafts.
- 1,900 intermediate-size Aircrafts.
- 390 747 size Aircrafts.
Note:
The number of existing Aircrafts over this period virtually all of which would be potential candidates for The system is, 17,700-7,600 = 10,100 Aircrafts.
Note 1:
Accepting that this is an acceptable estimate of the potential worth of this new Aircraft business at $520 billion US dollars let us briefly consider the profit performance of the Industry as shown at http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/data/2siworld.html over the years 1985-1997 inclusive. This covers a span time of a thirteen years in the Industry's history which can be, not unreasonably, as fairly typical of what might be the pattern of profit performance experienced over the next two decades. Calculation shows that the average annual (1985-1997) profit performance of the World's Airline Industry amounted to $6.2 billion US dollars.
Note 2:
Aircraft Sales for 1998-2007 is estimated as being $520 billion US dollars for an estimated 7,600 Aircrafts these average out at $68 million US dollars per Aircraft. The world fleet in 2007 is estimated as being almost twice as large as that in existence at 1997. Consider, according to these figures the average sales of Aircrafts over this period will amount to $52 billion per annum.
Consider according to the estimate the 2007 market will total 17700 this is an increase of approximately 43% over 1997 total.
Note 3;
Let us be generous and allow a profit performance of the World's Airline Industry over the next decade of double that of the period 1985-1987 and set it at $12 billion dollars per annum, this still only represents a return on $52 billion US dollars per annum of only 23%. However, if we now consider the cost of their entire business including the cost of the original Aircrafts and their ongoing operational costs and the scale of the Industry then, clearly, this $12 billion dollars profit per annum is simply not nearly enough in real terms to support this highly technical and complex industry in, an ever changing and very uncertain world market. As a direct consequences, it is locked into having to rely entirely on achieving a continuous market growth simply to exist.
4.1.3 20-Year Outlook. Major projections for the period 1998-2017 are as follows:
Economic & Traffic Growth.
World-wide economic growth will average 3% per year. Passenger traffic growth will average 4.9%$ per year.Cargo traffic growth will average 6.4% per year.
4.1.4 World-wide demand for the world fleet will comprise 26,200 passenger and commercial cargo jets in 2017.
Aircrafts composition of the world fleet will be:
1998-2017.
69% single-aisle Aircrafts.
24% intermediate-size Aircrafts.
7% 747 size or larger.
The total market potential for new commercial Aircrafts,
is 17,650 or an equivalent of $1.25 trillion US dollars. Airlines will take delivery of:
12,650 single-aisle Aircrafts.
4,360 Intermediate-size Aircrafts.
1,030 747-size or larger Aircrafts.
In summary, the world fleet is expected to reach 26,200 Aircrafts by the end of the 20 year forecast period. Amounting to System provision for 17,650 new Aircraft and 8,550 existing Aircraft to be allowed for in our deliberations.
Note:
The Boeing figures for new Airlines and the total estimated of 17,650 do not agree: 12,650+4360+1030 = 18,040 an error of 390.
Note:
For the purpose of this exercise a total of 18,040 new and 8,550 existing Aircraft i.e., 26,590 are to be treated as the accountable figure.
Note:
These figures translate into an average cost of $70million U.S Dollars per Aircraft across the period.
Consider, examination of the types of Aircraft that are proposed for use over the next two decades in meeting the future demands of the Industry are little more than developed variations of current conventionally configured Jet Powered Aircraft.
Consider, the efficiencies of the conventionally configured Aircraft and all of the systems comprising their engines and airframe are already technologically exhausted by this it is meant that any further improvement that might conceivably be won, can only be won at a cost out of all proportion to their realisable economic worth.
Of all the Aircraft types likely to be employed over 90% possess external pylon mounted engines which means that their existing engine to Aircraft configuration can be relatively easily adapted to accept The System.
Of the 26,590 world fleet estimated as being in operation by the year 2017 approximately 90% i.e., 23,931 the design could be relatively easily modified and the System incorporated in the manufacture of all new Aircrafts fairly quickly.
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